Variant effect and disease phosphosite prediction that fuses frozen ESM-2 embeddings with normal-mode protein dynamics over AlphaFold residue graphs.
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A disease-associated phosphosite and a pathogenic missense mutation can land on the same residue of the same protein — 393 residues do so across the two benchmarks assembled here — yet the static features normally used to score them point in opposite directions. Phosphosites cluster in AlphaFold's least confident regions, at mean pLDDT around 30–45; pathogenic mutations are enriched in buried, ordered α-helices and β-strands. Static geometry describes two different populations, which is part of why the two are usually modeled separately. DynGeo-Pheno's premise is that what they share is dynamic: both preferentially occupy residues that are mechanically constrained and allosterically coupled to the rest of the fold.
The framework comes from the ComputeSuda group of Zhongjie Liang and Guang Hu at the Suzhou Medical College of Soochow University, with Gennady Verkhivker of Chapman University, and was posted to bioRxiv in August 2026. It combines two residue-level signals over a protein graph: embeddings from the pre-trained ESM-2 protein language model, and eigenvectors of an anisotropic network model (ANM) built on the AlphaFold structure.
DynGeo-Pheno is not itself pretrained; its footing as a foundation-model application is the frozen checkpoint beneath it. ESM-2 is used as released and never fine-tuned, the ANM channel is a deterministic elastic-network calculation, and what is trained is a compact graph head, shipped as two task-specific weight sets over one architecture rather than one checkpoint.
esm2_t33_650M_UR50D) supplies 1,280-dimensional
residue embeddings, PCA-projected to 128 dimensions. For missense variants the feature is the
wild-type minus mutant embedding difference.The phosphorylation benchmark draws on PTMD 2.0, PhosphoSitePlus, PTMint and iPTMnet intersected with PTMAtlas: 73,911 sites across 6,005 human proteins, 3,059 disease-associated. The missense benchmark combines ClinVar with the Rhapsody-2 dataset: 89,471 variants across 10,980 proteins, 30,724 pathogenic. Sequences were redundancy-reduced with CD-HIT at 30% identity, each set split 90/10, and phosphosite data undersampled to a 1:2 positive-to-negative ratio. Training used 10-fold stratified cross-validation with RMSprop, and test predictions come from a majority vote across the ten fold models.
On the held-out splits the ensembles reach AUROC 0.873 and AUPRC 0.772 for phosphosites, and AUROC 0.937 and AUPRC 0.896 for missense variants. Against published phosphosite predictors, AUROC rises from 0.692 (FuncPhos-SEQ) and 0.753 (FuncPhos-STR) to 0.864, and MCC from 0.265 and 0.361 to 0.572. On missense variants it records the highest recall at 0.885, with AUROC 0.914 and AUPRC 0.880 — comparable to AlphaMissense, which the authors treat as a complementary reference, and above Rhapsody-2. Ablation puts the dynamics channel's contribution at 0.7% AUROC for phosphosites and 0.4% for missense variants; ESM-2 carries most of the signal. The final configuration uses 48-residue neighborhoods and no pLDDT filtering, since stricter confidence thresholds consistently hurt.
The immediate use is triage: ranking which of a protein's phosphorylation sites are disease-relevant, and which coding variants in a sequencing report are pathogenic. Inputs are a UniProt accession and a residue position, with structures taken from the AlphaFold Protein Structure Database, so it runs on any human protein that database covers. For wet-lab groups the interpretation layer matters as much as the score: a flagged residue arrives with its position relative to binding pockets and interfaces and its ANM profile, pointing at the experiment that would test the call.
The independent test set is a random 10% split of the same curated benchmarks, not an external cohort, so the numbers describe held-out generalization within the training distribution, and the dynamics gain is consistent but small. The contribution beyond the two classifiers is the biophysical result they enable: phosphosites concentrate in flexible regulatory regions and pathogenic mutations in ordered elements, yet both converge on residues with enhanced long-range coupling, higher perturbation responsiveness and greater mechanical stiffness. That convergence argues for treating intrinsic dynamics as a determinant of pathogenicity alongside sequence conservation, testable independently of whether these checkpoints stay competitive. Source code and trained fold ensembles are released for both tasks; the preprint has not been peer reviewed.
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